Introduction

Democratic consolidation in postcolonial Africa remains fraught with challenges, from entrenched ruling parties to military coups that have taken place in many countries on the continent. There has been an exception in the Botswana case, which international observers have long hailed as a “democratic success story,” with some scholars referring to it as an “African miracle.” Botswana, a country of approximately 2.5 million, has relatively enjoyed democratic and political stability, regular elections, and economic growth since gaining independence in 1966. However, this stability has not been straightforward; it came alongside an entrenched one-party dominant political system based on the Botswana Democratic Party’s (BDP) rule for nearly 58 years. The BDP won every general election from 1965 up to 2019 without any transfer of power ever occurring up to that point.1

By the late 2010s, cracks in the “Democratic Exception” had become visible, marked by a weakened opposition, elite dominance, power centralization under Ian Khama (son of the country’s first president, Sir Seretse Khama), corruption scandals, and growing youth discontent.2 Given these challenges, the 2024 general elections marked a historic break in the erstwhile dominant political pattern as it became the first real testing ground of whether Botswana’s democracy could withstand an electoral shift and transfer of power. This test of change was not only pivotal for Botswana’s democracy, but for Africa’s broader political trajectory, especially since some African countries struggle with dominant party systems or an outright regression of democratic values and processes.

The following analysis will examine Botswana’s democratic evolution, examining the factors that led to its recent political transition and reflecting on the broader implications for Africa’s democratic future. Drawing from theories of democratic consolidation and authoritarian resilience, I frame Botswana’s trajectory through these two key lenses. Linz and Stepan emphasize that consolidated democracy requires a robust civil society, adherence to the rule of law, and genuine political pluralism.3 These features, which have long been presumed to define Botswana’s political system, became increasingly hollowed out over time. Levitsky and Way’s concept of competitive authoritarianism is also instructive in showing how formal democratic institutions can coexist with entrenched ruling power, as seen in the Botswana Democratic Party’s (BDP) uninterrupted dominance for almost 60 years.4 Together, these frameworks illuminate how Botswana sustained a façade of democracy and why the 2024 political transition marked a substantive shift toward genuine democratic consolidation.

The 2024 Election Outcome

On October 30, 2024, voters delivered a historic verdict through free and fair elections. For the first time in Botswana’s history, the BDP was rejected at the ballot box. The opposition Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC), led by Duma Boko, won 36 of 61 seats, while the BDP won just 4 seats.5 Voter turnout exceeded 80%, signifying intense public engagement.6 President Mokgweetsi Masisi conceded defeat, paving the way for Botswana’s first peaceful transfer of power from one party to another. The smooth transition defied a continental trend where incumbents often resist electoral defeat.

Why the BDP Lost

Several factors have been brewing since the election, which culminated in the defeat of the ruling party. According to Makgala,7 corruption thrived during Masisi’s tenure. The former President was accused by opposition politicians and the private media of amassing wealth through government contracts, as well as allegations of awarding himself an unwarranted parliamentary allowance.8 In addition, economic grievances resulting from Botswana’s over-reliance on diamonds, with a lack of diversification of the economy, as well as a high youth unemployment rate reaching the levels of 34% were among some of the contributory factors to BDP’s defeat.9 Another key factor was the unity of the opposition party and its political strategy. In the past, the opposition parties were fragmented but eventually united to form the UDC. Despite past factional challenges, the UDC unified for this election, building a coalition and campaigning on pressing public issues, including anti-corruption, job creation, and wage reforms. These factors, among others, created the conditions under which the 2024 election broke with historical precedent—signaling not just a transfer of political power, but a potential redefinition of Botswana’s democratic path and future.

Botswana in the African Context

Botswana’s peaceful transfer of power stands out in a region marked by both democratic advances and reversals. In contrast to Zimbabwe’s entrenched ZANU-PF, or Mali and Burkina Faso’s military coups, Botswana demonstrated that change is possible without violence. It also avoided the pre-election tensions seen in Senegal in 2023 and the post-election unrest of Mozambique in 2024. Instead, Botswana joined Zambia (2021) and The Gambia (2016) in showing that dominant parties can be unseated through the ballot. These examples challenge narratives that contend that political change in Africa requires military coups or insurgencies/civil wars. They highlight the growing willingness of electorates to reject underperforming incumbents.10 Moreover, it shows that young people are taking a stand against political oppression and corruption and having a say in issues that affect and impact them, as evidenced by the increase in voter turnout in the case of Botswana. Finally, the role of social media as a powerful tool to educate and mobilize citizens during the electoral period helped to give them greater say in matters that affect the country.

Conclusion

Botswana’s 2024 election marked a turning moment for the country and offered lessons for Africa. It proved that entrenched ruling parties can be removed peacefully when institutions function effectively, citizens mobilize themselves, and the opposition presents credible alternative candidates to stand for public office. Moreover, we have also learned that long-standing political parties are not invincible, that institutions matter, and that civic agency is powerful. Reform is possible when the opposition mobilizes itself meaningfully to achieve clearly set goals. For Botswana, the challenge now is to consolidate this breakthrough in democratic governance by meeting high public expectations. For the rest of Africa, the message is clear: peaceful change through the ballot is achievable and worth fighting for.

Endnotes

  1. Parkin, Annemie.Parties of Pressure: Opposition Parties in the Dominant-Party Systems of Botswana and South Africa. PhD diss., Stellenbosch University, 2022. https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/528258144.pdf.
  2. Ibid.
  3. Lotshwao, Kebapetse. “The Weakness of Opposition Parties in Botswana: A Justification for More Internal-Party Democracy in the Dominant Botswana Democratic Party (BDP).”African Journal of Political Science 9, no. 9 (September 2015): 1–9. https://www.internationalscholarsjournals.com/articles/the-weakness-of-opposition-parties-in-botswana-a-justification-for-more-internalparty-democracy-in-the-dominant-botswana.pdf.
  4. Linz, Juan J., and Alfred Stepan.Problems of Democratic Transition and Consolidation: Southern Europe, South America, and Post-Communist Europe. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1996.
  5. Levitsky, Steven, and Lucan A. Way. “Elections Without Democracy: The Rise of Competitive Authoritarianism.”Journal of Democracy. https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/elections/election-results-october-through-december-2024/.
  6. Namaiko, Tuni, and Ringisai Chikohomero. “Great Expectations as Democracy Wins in Botswana.”Institute for Security Studies, November 15, 2024. https://issafrica.org/iss-today/great-expectations-as-democracy-wins-in-botswana.
  7. Makgala, Christian J. “Botswana’s Election Shock: Analyst Reflects on Why Voters Kicked the Ruling Party Out After 58 Years.”The Conversation, November 12, 2024. https://theconversation.com/botswanas-election-shock-analyst-reflects-on-why-voters-kicked-the-ruling-party-out-after-58-years-242811.
  8. Lawal, Shola. “Ghana to Botswana: Why African Voters Are Throwing Out Ruling Parties.”Al Jazeera, December 11, 2024. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/12/11/ghana-to-botswana-why-african-voters-are-throwing-out-ruling-parties.
  9. Namaiko, Tuni, and Ringisai Chikohomero. “Great Expectations as Democracy Wins in Botswana.”Institute for Security Studies, November 15, 2024. https://issafrica.org/iss-today/great-expectations-as-democracy-wins-in-botswana.
  10. Lawal, Shola. “Ghana to Botswana: Why African Voters Are Throwing Out Ruling Parties.”Al Jazeera, December 11, 2024. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/12/11/ghana-to-botswana-why-african-voters-are-throwing-out-ruling-parties.